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It could also be wise for an investor to know the value of the tangible and intangible assets and the market value of the organization into which an investment is being planned. Competition: Property market plays an important role in the economy. There are several players in the market who usually try to attract investors.
It is possible that in the process the investors may receive inappropriate financial advice. For example, consumers may not be aware of non-disclosed information pertaining to advice they receive. Partnership: Partnership plays an important role in investing, as it reduces the impact of potential risk on the individual or company investment. For an investor to be successful in a real-estate partnership it is important to know the partner well and therefore trust plays a vital role.
The role of each partner does need to be well defined and documented. Having a clear legal document will protect the interest of all partners. It also important to plan and document an exit strategy for all involved, because personal situations may change over time.
Clearly, before a partnership agreement is made it is necessary to conduct a detail research to become self-confident about the deal. Natural disasters: In the real real-estate market, location plays an important factor in the investment decision. A property purchased at an appropriate location is expected to provide a good return on the investment. One of the main factors affecting location is the potential exposure to natural calamities such as bushfires, floods, sea level raise and erosion to name a few.
If the location has a history or is likely to be exposed to a natural disaster it can be expected that the property prices will eventually be exposed to the risk. Therefore, it is wise to not be enticed into such toxic locations. Other factors that need to be accounted for are the costs of maintenance of properties and the nature and level of insurance required for risky locations, if chosen.
It is certain that there are many risks involved in real-estate market as mentioned. While real-estate provides variety of investment options every investor has to find their comfort level upon taking risks involved.
It is not easy to decide if a selected property for investment is appropriate, but the decision should be made based on the consideration of all the factors discussed earlier. In the end however, the willingness to take risks largely depends upon individual preferences and circumstances. The elements that usually determine the scale of risk or reward are the amount of money that is invested, length of time investment, rate of return or property appreciation, depreciation, fees, taxes, inflation etc.
While it is natural for the individual and organizations to invest and expect returns it is important the investors make the informed choice to reduce the odds of losing the principle invested.
The potential risks and rewards in investing in the Australian real estate market are investigated next. The speculation about Australian housing market has been intense since The classic sign of an asset bubble. The house price-to-income ratio has been the main focus in Australia. The house price-to-income ratio is comparatively high when compared to other countries. In the next sections a discussion of the fundamentals that govern the house prices in Australian residential housing market is examined.
Also, the potential risks and rewards to the investors are explored in terms of the risk analysis framework presented earlier. Since the U. Moreover, it is observed that the house price-to-income ratio levels are at levels that are similar to that in the US before the housing market there crashed in However, it is important to analyze the fundamentals that govern Australian residential market price growth against the rest of world.
In the US, the residential finance system played a significant role in the housing bubble of The regulation, residential finance institutional arrangements, and mortgage characteristics aided the excessive demand for housing finance.
Housing finance was available and offered to borrowers with poor borrowing capacities. Consequently, excessive borrowing led to the housing bubble and the collapse of the financial system in the U. S in There are some fundamental differences in the lending practice in Australia when compared to the US [ 21 ].
In Australia the lending process is highly regulated by the institutional arrangement. The lending practices enforce the regulatory provisions on financial institutions forcing them to avoid excessive risk taking behavior. Table 2 outlines the characteristics of housing loans both in the U.
S and in Australia. The table highlights the systemic susceptibility to riskier mortgages in the US and that availability of such funds to finance the mortgages were more common than in Australia. Negative amortization loans are common in the US but no such loans existed in Australia at the time of the crisis. This is also deters financial institutions from offering risky loans.
These primary differences stand out to support and contribute to a relatively strong performance of the housing loans in Australia when compared to the US. It is important to note that the share of non-performing loans in Australia were less than 1. Another fundamental difference is that there is no government sponsored enterprise GSE in Australia while they exist in the US. This potentially provides an impression that bad loans offered to borrowers with poor repayment capacity would be covered by the Federal Government [ 23 ].
The commercial banks are mainly funded by the bank deposits, short term and long-term wholesale debt [ 24 ]. The absence of the so called Federal guarantee restricts Australian banks from any excessive risk taking behavior. The Loan to Value Ratio LVR refers to the amount of money borrowed against the total value of the property in a home equity loan. The value of the property is determined by the lender and is often significantly less than the purchase price, which often surprise first-time borrowers.
Typically, the amount that lenders have been prepared to lend for housing has been restricted by one or both of the following:. The analysis presented in the previous section shows that Australia is fundamentally different to the US when it comes to the residential housing market.
But, how does Australia compare to the other countries in the world? New research conducted by Lloyds TSB [ 27 ] – International Global Housing Market Review, shows that Australia just made it into the top 10 list of countries with the highest house price increases over the past decade Table 3. Four of the six top performing housing markets since were in the emerging economies of the world.
Other major findings of the research include:. Countries that had large rises in pre-crisis times lost the most after the GFC affected their economies; and. But Spain has seen a major decline in The performance of the established house prices in Australian housing market provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS is presented in Figure 8.
The Australian housing over the past five years has seen some corrections. Prior to GFC, there has been a considerable growth in the established housing prices. This growth pattern however changed course and reached the worst levels in August when the GFC was setting in. However, the prices of established homes climbed steeply during the peak of the GFC when markets around the world were playing havoc. This defiance could be mainly attributed to the management initiatives taken by the RBA [ 21 ] and government of Australia.
The RBA drastically reduced the interest rates to a record low of 3. This led to flood of first home buyers entering the market that drove the prices up against all odds. Since the time the incentives have been wound back, and the market and investor sentiment took over.
This led to a fall in the growth when compared to the preceding three years and has been mostly in the low sentiment in the past two years. Therefore, although Australian market prices are influenced by the global events, a collapse similar to that seen in markets elsewhere seems appears a distant possibility. This can be attributed to the underlying government incentives to manage the risks during the crisis. Other micro-economics aspects also helped manage the downturn.
Australian annual house price change in the last decade. House prices have been underpinned by a chronic housing shortage in Australia. This was brought about by an ever increasing population and constraints placed on housing supply over time.
Figure 9 shows the increase in population growth from both natural growth and migration since From to September natural population growth has only seen a marginal increase, but during the same period the net overseas migration growth has been substantial.
Trend of natural population increase and net overseas migration. Figure 10 shows that there has been an increase in the total population by about 1. However, given that there has been a large influx of people into Australia, the question was whether there was enough housing infrastructure in place. Net overseas migration and components of population change.
Figure 11 shows the trend in the population and dwellings commenced from January to October As shown earlier, the population growth showed an upward trend over the entire period. The number of dwellings commenced shows a rather distressing trend. Figure 11 shows the commencement of new dwellings significantly fell short and did not keep pace with the rapid growth in population. For an addition of 1. Interestingly, this situation presents a case for more property investment as people search for a place to live.
Historically, Australia has been behind in the demand versus supply of residential dwellings, but more so in the last decade than any time earlier. Figure 12 shows the dwelling gap in the previous decade. Australia continues to run large annual deficits in housing supply – the underlying demand for dwellings and the completion of dwellings has not matched. Trend in the number of dwellings commenced and population. Estimated dwelling gap in the last decade.
National housing supply council NHSC estimates a demand versus supply gap of approximately houses in ; and an increase in the gap from in Figure 13 shows the projections in the supply gap to The figure shows an increase over time till , and indeed a higher rate of increase predicted from till Supply and demand gap projections to To examine whether the situation is the same throughout Australia or mainly confined to a few states, data from all the states are explored in more depth.
Their data runs against the trend for the last decade but more so during The larger states of New South Wales NSW , Victoria Vic , Queensland Qld and Western Australia WA all continue to have high deficits year after year and the deficit is increasing — however, Victoria being an exception in where it managed to go against the trend temporarily Figure To further understand the nature of the differences between states, the net population increase in the demand across states needs to be compared.
Figure 15 shows the state by state net change in population as well as housing issues. The states with a high influx of population showed higher dwelling demand. Not surprisingly, the high demand has led to a rather strong rental market particularly in the larger states and this has provided an impetus for higher rental returns and an ideal time for new investors to consider for the longer term.
With recent housing approvals declining, this demand supply gap can only be expected to widen. Clearly, the population increase cannot only be driving the market. Therefore, other aspects need investigation such as house price to income ratio; and house hold debt to income ratio.
Housing demand and supply by states. Net population change – state by state over The house price-to-income ratio is generally calculated using average income of the whole population. This method of calculating house price may not be appropriate in that a set of buyers whose incomes are above the average income of the wider population, and have the ability to service the loans tend to bid in the auctions there by inflating house prices [ 28 ].
Such competition is visible across all capital cities but more so in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Canberra than other cities. Figure 16 shows the median change in the house prices across eight capital cities since Figure 16 shows that the increase in house prices in the major capital cities have been greater than those of other cities.
This suggests the increase in house prices in Australia over the past five years was driven mostly by house prices in the most expensive cities, where home buyers tend to be higher income earners. The house price-to-income ratio does not seem to pick up the distributional differences. The household debt to disposable income ratio can provide valuable insights while assessing the vulnerabilities.
Therefore, disposable incomes of people need to be considered when assessing the vulnerability of an average mum and dad investor.
Figure 17 shows the distribution of debt to income since An indication to the scale of vulnerability can become salient when the house hold income to debt and the annual change in established home price are compared. Figure 18 shows that there has been a somewhat volatile situation in the housing market in all capital cities during ; yet, during the same period, the debt to income ratio seem to be approximately constant over time.
The comparison shows the average households are not so vulnerable to at least a change in their income situation given there was volatility in house price changes over time. Owner occupier debt Source: RBA.
Annual change in established home prices Source: ABS. The aim of this paper was to define risk and risk management in terms of real estate investment thus demonstrating the in depth nature and complexity of the process. The review shows that risk analysis involves a number of steps with each step in turn involving another set of procedures. Risk analysis is a process that it is often ignored by investors particularly by the individual or smaller investors who tend to be more vulnerable.
Similarly, risk management involves a number of processes and stages with steps and these have been outlined in the paper. A risk analysis is conducted here for investors in Australia real estate market. The results are rather interesting in that several conditional differences exist between Australia and the rest of the world. A tight financial system regulation in Australia means a highly disciplined financial sector. The tougher regulation of the industry therefore prevents financial institutions from taking on excessive risks, contrary to the US counterparts.
In fact, increasing house prices was identified in Australia after the crises of ; and this was associated with the changes in mortgage lending rates, rising family income, increasing overseas migration demand, government incentives to name a few. Together the market situation suggests that Australia is unlikely to face a US style housing bubble. The results of the risk analysis show that:. This has changed in when the higher Australian dollar has posed interesting challenges for the Australian investments.
In summary, Australian housing industry continues to experience significant housing shortages in major cities due to a rapidly growing population; in particular, the growth has been fueled by strong overseas migration during , but the Australian current government immigration laws suggest that the strong levels of immigration will continue for some time due to the lack of skills in the labor market.
The housing demand is further supported by the fact that the size of the Australian household appears to be shrinking adding to the pressure on housing both in rental and investment. The demand of rental housing together with somewhat lower house prices in recent times buyer marker has lured many new investors in the market.
This aspect, the negative gearing benefits, and the first home ownership schemes supported by significantly lower interest rates have all led to a favorable and stronger real estate market in Australia. All of this has occurred within a framework of a stronger, tightly regulated financial sector that has been more-stricter than most advanced economies including the US.
Such a regulated real estate market appears to have kept the mortgage repayment failure and housing related bad debts at a minimum in Australia. Licensee IntechOpen. This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3. Edited by Nerija Banaitiene. Published: September 12th, Impact of this chapter. Introduction Life is full of risks for example risk is involved in simple things like turning on the gas at home or when dealing with life threatening medical emergency decisions.
Risk management There seems to be an increasing demand of organizations to meet and exceed the financial expectations of shareholders. Ignoring the risks that apply to the business activities or the events that have been planned could impact on the following: customer and public confidence in the organization; credibility, reputation and status; equipment and the environment; financial position of the concerned; and health and safety of employees, customers, volunteers and participants.
The steps involved in managing risk. Establish goals and context To establish context and define goals is an important step. Identify risks Identification of risk involves a systematic process of examining situations and finding solutions. There are four primary areas in which risk can occur in a general business environment: financial: this could mean loss of funding, insurance costs, fraud, theft, fees etc.
Analyse risks This step determines and addresses the impact of threats that have been documented. The levels of the risks can be classified into extreme: an extreme risk requires immediate action as the potential could be devastating to the enterprise; high: a high level of risk requires action, as it has the potential to be damaging to the enterprise; moderate: allocate specific responsibility to a moderate risk and implement monitoring or response procedures; and low: can manage a low level of risk with routine procedures.
It is then important to ask the following questions in relation to each of the identified risks: What is the likelihood of the risk occurring? What are the consequences if the risk should occur? Evaluate risks In this step the tolerance of the risk is determined; that is, whether the identified risk is acceptable or unacceptable. The evaluation takes into account the following: importance of risk management and possible outcomes of a risky activity; potential and actual losses that may arise from the risk; benefits and opportunities presented by the risk; and degree of control one has over the risk.
A risk is deemed to be an acceptable risk because of following reasons: risk level is low and the benefits presented by the risk outweigh the cost of managing it; risk level is so low that it does not warrant spending time and money to manage it; and risk presents opportunities that are much greater than the threats posed by it.
Treatments of risks Risks may be dealt with in several ways; it can be avoided, reduced, shared or retained. In such situations calculated risks are accepted and a high risk situation may be reduced by: identifying options to treat the risk; selecting the best treatment option; preparing a risk treatment plan; and implementing a risk treatment plan. The nature of strategies to mitigate risk often depends on the experience of the risk manager who may consider one or more of the following [ 3 ]: avoid the risk by deciding not to proceed with the activity or choosing another way to achieve the same outcome; control the risk by reducing the likelihood of the risk occurring, the consequences of the risk or both; transfer the risk by shifting all or part of the responsibility of the risk to another party who is best able to control it; and retain the risk after accepting that the risk cannot be avoided, controlled or transferred.
Monitor and report effectiveness of risk treatments Every organization irrespective of size clearly strives to reduce the risks involved. Table 1. Risk management planning template. Types of risk associated real estate market. Internal risk Internal risk can be divided into financial management, human resources, property management, legislative compliance, corporate governance and housing management as shown in Figure 5. External risk External risk depends on a number of factors such as economic risk, funding, regulation, environment, reputation, competition, partnerships and natural disasters Figure 2.
Introduction: How Australian real estate compares to the rest of the world. Some aspects of the residential finance system in the U. Australia US Regulation is high on mortgage loans No full recourse of mortgages No negative amortisation of loans yes Securitization is low in housing finance Securitization is high in housing finance Non-conforming loans Subprime loans Full recourse of mortgages No full recourse of mortgages.
Table 2. Mortgage characteristics of Australia as compared to US. Australian real estate market compared to the rest of the world The analysis presented in the previous section shows that Australia is fundamentally different to the US when it comes to the residential housing market.
Table 3. Real house price changes — A global comparison. Australian house prices and the fundamental influences Australian housing demand has been strong and can be also attributed to the following: strong overseas migration from to ; housing shortages due to a rapidly growing population; Australian household sizes are shrinking; lending standards stricter than most advanced economies including the US; and interest rates at record lows.
Trend of net population increase and net overseas migration increase House prices have been underpinned by a chronic housing shortage in Australia. Trend in the number of dwellings commenced and population Figure 11 shows the trend in the population and dwellings commenced from January to October Demand and supply scenario Historically, Australia has been behind in the demand versus supply of residential dwellings, but more so in the last decade than any time earlier.
House price-to-income ratio The house price-to-income ratio is generally calculated using average income of the whole population. Owner- Occupier debt Figure 17 shows the distribution of debt to income since References 1. Sunstein C. International Standard Organization. Guide Risk management- Vocabulary. Hillson D. Murray-Webster R. Understanding and managing risk attitude.
Aldershot: Gower; 6. Webb A. Burlington: Gower; 7. London I. IRM; 8. Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. Int J of Project Management. ACT Insurance Authority. Guide to Risk Management. Susilawati C. Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?. Int J Housing Markets Analysis.
Armitage L. Affordable Housing. Annual Conference. Pacific Rim. Real Estate. Society January. Elenor C. NCHF [serial on the internet]. Melton T. Project management. Oxford: Elsevier; Aldershot: Gower; Bisset H. Milligan V. Risk Management in Community Housing: Managing the challenges posed by growth in the provision of affordable housing. Available from: Sheryl V. Adam W. Housing Association. Risk Management. Plan template. Version 5.
ABC [homepage on the internet]. IMF predicts Australia housing bust; [about 3 screens]. Smart Company [homepage on the internet]. Smart Company. Australian property bubble could be about to burst: IMF; [about 3 screens].
The Economist [homepage on the internet]. The Australian [homepage on the internet]. News Pty Ltd [updated May 3; cited March 15]. Housing tipped for price implosion; [about 4 screens]. Real Estate Institute of Australia. Australian house prices: bursting the bubble myth.
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